When Does a Padel Court Investment Pay Back? Cash Flow and Break-Even Analysis
Work out the payback of a padel court investment from capacity, occupancy, price and cost: a worked example, the break-even formula and seasonal risk.
Before investing in a padel court, the question is not 'how much will I earn' but 'at what occupancy do I break even, and how fast can I reach it'. This post calculates payback with four variables: capacity, occupancy, price and cost. The formulas are written out in full and the numbers are shown on a working business model.
Capacity is the roof of the investment: courts × daily open hours × open days per month. Four courts, 14 hours a day and 30 days a month gives 1,680 hours of monthly capacity. That number is the ceiling of the investment; no pricing or marketing can sell more than capacity.
Occupancy is how much of that capacity is actually sold. At 60%, 1,008 of the 1,680 hours are sold. When the industry talks about 'high occupancy' it usually means the weekday evening window, and that distinction matters: weekday 10:00-16:00 and 18:00-23:00 are not the same money.
Price: at TL 500 per hour, 1,008 booked hours produce TL 504,000 in court revenue. Price works in the opposite direction to occupancy — raising it lowers occupancy. So the price line should be tested together with occupancy, not treated as an independent revenue target.
Membership revenue is the predictable layer on top of court revenue: 40 members × TL 1,500 in dues = TL 60,000/month. Its value is not only the amount but the timing — dues arrive before the month starts, securing the first days of your cash flow.
Split costs in two: fixed costs of TL 180,000/month (staff, rent, energy, maintenance, marketing) and the software line. The software has no fixed fee; its only cost is commission on card bookings that arrive through CourtON, at the rate written in your contract. The baseline scenario takes the commission rate as zero (there is no fixed software fee), so the table adds nothing on the cost side: total monthly cost is TL 180,000. Tying fixed cost to occupancy is the main reason slow months feel like panic; on the cost side, the real lever is the staffing plan.
Now the table:
• Capacity: 4 courts × 14 hours × 30 days = 1,680 hours/month
• Occupancy: 60% → 1,008 booked hours
• Court revenue: 1,008 × TL 500 = TL 504,000
• Membership revenue: 40 members × TL 1,500 = TL 60,000
• Software effect: +5 points occupancy = 84 hours = TL 42,000
• Total revenue: TL 606,000
• Total cost: TL 180,000 fixed (no fixed software fee)
• Net profit: TL 426,000 — 70.3% margin
The break-even occupancy formula is:
break-even occupancy (%) = (total cost − membership revenue) / (capacity × hourly rate) × 100 − contribution points
In numbers: (180,000 − 60,000) / (1,680 × 500) × 100 − 5 = 14.3 − 5 = roughly 9.3%. In other words, once membership revenue and the software's occupancy contribution are counted, the club breaks even at about a tenth of capacity — a far lower threshold than most operators assume.
Where do the contribution points come from? Software raises occupancy by making idle hours visible and by converting cancellations through a waiting list. Five points is 84 hours, or TL 42,000 in extra revenue. With no fixed software fee, that amount drops straight to profit; the only cost is commission on card bookings that arrive through CourtON, at the rate written in your contract. The item that never appears on the cost side produces the highest yield on the list.
Payback period becomes calculable. With monthly net profit at TL 426,000, divide your facility investment by that figure to get the number of months. Confirm the investment lines (build/hangar, floor, panoramic glass, lighting, heating, social areas) with local contractor quotes; this post deliberately quotes no figure, because the total swings widely by city and by period.
Cash flow is a different story from profit. Dues arrive at the start of the month, court revenue daily, fixed costs at the end. Prepaid memberships and online collection flip that cycle in your favour: software that collects at the moment of booking removes the unpaid-receivable problem at month end.
Seasonal risk is the biggest variable that breaks the table. Indoor courts protect winter revenue; outdoor courts run high in summer and low in winter. So test break-even against your worst month too, not just the annual average: can you cover total costs in the slowest month?
The fastest sensitivity test is to place three scenarios side by side: 50%, 60% and 70% occupancy. At 50% court revenue drops to TL 420,000 and net profit to TL 342,000; at 70% court revenue rises to TL 588,000 and net profit to TL 510,000. The spread shows how much weight occupancy management carries in your profit.
Frequently asked questions:
• How do I calculate payback? Divide the total facility investment by monthly net profit; in the worked example that is TL 426,000. Confirm the investment totals with a local contractor quote.
• Why is break-even occupancy so low? Because membership revenue (TL 60,000) is deducted straight from cost and the software's occupancy contribution (5 points) is counted. Without membership revenue the threshold rises to roughly 16.4%.
• Does the season break the table? Indoor courts protect winter revenue; for outdoor courts test the worst-month scenario separately.
• Where do the numbers come from? From the default scenario at partners.courton.club/karlilik-hesaplayici; change them to your own values and read the result.
Run your own payback and break-even numbers at partners.courton.club/karlilik-hesaplayici, and start on the free plan at courton.club to operate this table live.